THE 2011 EMMY AWARDS PREDICTIONS EXTRAVAGANZA

Feel free to play along at home with the Emmy Nomination prediction game. 2 points for a will win, 1 point for a should win.

Supporting Actor, Comedy


Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men


Chris Colfer, Glee


Ty Burrell, Modern Family


Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family 


Ed O'Neill, Modern Family

Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

WILL WIN

As always, the Supporting Actor in a comedy category presents us with the Colfer Conundrum – do you pick the best performance in a comedy or funniest performance in a comedy? If we’re going with best, I suspect Chris Colfer takes this category easily based on his heartbreaking performance in ‘Grilled Cheesus’. If we’re going with funniest, it’s probably (narrowly) Ty Burrell in Modern Family. Given that Emmy voters have to actually watch the episodes, though, I think its going to be difficult to go past Colfer, on his performance of ‘I Wanna Hold Your Hand’ alone.

SHOULD WIN

Chris Colfer. He’s the best part of a show that’s crumbling around him. While Ty Burrell was the most consistently funny part of Modern Family over the year, he didn’t really have a standout episode.

Supporting Actress, Comedy


Jane Lynch, Glee

Betty White, Hot in Cleveland

Julie Bowen, Modern Family


Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live


Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock


Sofia Vergara, Modern Family

WILL WIN

Jane Lynch is hosting the ceremony. She’s won every award in this category since Glee began, and while she’s an increasingly awful part of that show, I don’t think your average Emmy voter has twigged to that. Helping her even further is the fact that her submission episode is a dramatic showcase for a comedic character.

SHOULD WIN

In every episode of Modern Family, Sofia Vergara makes me glad I watched. Her pronunciation of ‘Shia Labeouf’ alone has kept me amused for months. She’s consistently the funniest part of a consistently funny show and as such easily deserves the win here. She won’t get it, though. More’s the pity.

Outstanding Mini-series or Movie


Mildred Pierce


Downton Abbey


The Kennedys


Cinema Verite


Too Big to Fail


The Pillars of the Earth

WILL WIN

Given that the Kennedys was critically panned and none of Cinema Verite, Too Big to Fail or The Pillars of the Earth made much of a splash, this is a race between a critically adored British historical drama and a critically adored American drama. It’s gonna be Mildred Pierce, folks. Pack up and go home.

SHOULD WIN

I’m not a huge fan of any of these series, finding Mildred Pierce slavish and overlong and Downton Abbey wildly inconsistent, depending on whether we were upstairs or downstairs. For being entertaining and thought provoking for the longest stretch, I’m going with the lords and ladies. Downton Abbey deserves this one.

Outstanding Variety, Music or Comedy Series


The Colbert Report


Late Night with Jimmy Fallon


Saturday Night Live


Conan


Real Time with Bill Maher


The Daily Show

WILL WIN

The Daily Show is on a deserved hot streak in this category and that shows no signs of abating.

SHOULD WIN

The Daily Show continues its run of being the most relevant, sharpest comedy on television. Only The Colbert Report comes close but The Daily Show still has the edge.

Supporting Actor, Drama


John Slattery, Mad Men


Andre Braugher, Men of a Certain Age


Walton Goggins, Justified


Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones


Josh Charles, The Good Wife


Alan Cumming, The Good Wife

WILL WIN

Unlike some other critics, I’m perfectly happy with Josh Charles being nominated in this category. I think he’s fantastic.  But EVERYONE is fantastic in this category. Slattery is solid as always, Alan Cumming is consistently the best part of ‘The Good Wife’, Walton Goggins is one of the best character actors in the business, Andre Braugher plays against type beautifully and Peter Dinklage is a charisma machine on ‘Game of Thrones’. I’m going to go with Alan Cumming here for no other reason than he’s had the best combination of flashy part and popular show. Everyone would deserve a win here.

SHOULD WIN

Man. This is a tough one – but I’m going to go with Peter Dinklage. Because I loved Game of Thrones, and this is probably its only chance for a ‘major award’. Plus, he’s awesome. If you haven’t watched Game of Thrones yet, you should have.

Supporting Actress, Drama


Kelly McDonald, Boardwalk Empire


Christina Hendricks, Mad Men


Michelle Forbes, The Killing


Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife


Margo Martindale, Justified


Christine Baranski, The Good Wife

WILL WIN

I’m pretty deeply concerned that Boardwalk Empire is going to sweep these Emmys, and I expect Kelly McDonald to be one of the early harbingers of doom.

SHOULD WIN

Having said that, it’s really difficult to deny McDonald her accolades, as she’s regularly pretty excellent on Boardwalk Empire. Anyone who watched Justified this year though knows that despite the fine work of Panjabi, Forbes, Baranski and Hendricks, Margo Martindale deserves the win as her unbelievable work on that show’s second season. Just brilliant, and she deserves the win.

Lead Actor, Comedy


Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock


Louis CK, Louie


Steve Carell, The Office


Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory


Matt LeBlanc, Episodes


Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

WILL WIN

I think you can rule out LeBlanc and Galecki pretty quickly. The fact Galecki was nominated was pretty amazing in itself considering he’s on a show where he’s increasingly irrelevant. LeBlanc is the best thing about Episodes, but I don’t think that show gained enough cultural traction. Louis CK is a pleasant surprise for a nomination but I don’t think he’s quite got the tickets in the bank yet. So we have a three-way raise – the most recent winner in Parsons, the multi-winner in Baldwin and the emotional favourite who is yet to win an Emmy in Carell. I think Parsons gets the vote split with Galecki and Steve Carell’s episode is just good enough to get the nod over Baldwin.

SHOULD WIN

And so he should. Steve Carell has created a fantastic character with a brilliant performance and is the most deserving person in the ENTIRE SHOW.

Lead Actress, Comedy


Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie


Tina Fey, 30 Rock


Laura Linney, The Big C


Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly


Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope


Amy Poehler, Parks & Recreation

WILL WIN

Sometimes you look at a category and it’s so even that you just look at the biggest movie star and give them the award. On that basis its probably Laura Linney, with a late charge from Melissa McCarthy.

SHOULD WIN

As the anchor of the best comedy on television and simply the funniest and best actress on this list, it’s an easy and much-deserved win for Amy Poehler. DON’T BET ON THIS.

Lead Actor, Drama


Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire


Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights


Michael C. Hall, Dexter


Jon Hamm, Mad Men


Hugh Laurie, House


Timothy Olyphant, Justified

WILL WIN

I think Steve Buscemi is an easy pick here but this is the only category when I’m going to break rank and put my faith in them to pick Jon Hamm for his wonderful performance in Mad Men, specifically in The Suitcase.

SHOULD WIN

I’ve made my peace with the fact that Hugh Laurie and Kyle Chandler won’t with Emmys with two of the best (and best-performed) characters on television. Jon Hamm deserves this for the iconic Don Draper’s three previous seasons alone – but perhaps never more than this one.

Lead Actress, Drama


Kathy Bates, Harry's Law


Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights


Mireille Enos, The Killing


Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: SVU


Julianna Marguiles, The Good Wife


Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

WILL WIN

I think we can rule out Enos and Hargitay for having good but not outstanding seasons. I think Kathy Bates’ Kathy Bates-ness could very easily get her over the line. Julianna Marguiles and Connie Britton would both be easily deserving but I think Elisabeth Moss has chosen the right year to move up to Lead Actress and should get the win now.

SHOULD WIN

See all the stuff I wrote about Jon Hamm up there? Uh, ditto. Elisabeth Moss for the win.

Outstanding Comedy Series


The Big Bang Theory


Glee


Modern Family


The Office


Parks & Recreation


30 Rock

WILL WIN

The critically acclaimed and popular Modern Family will surely take this category out.

SHOULD WIN

Glee had a wildly inconsistent second season and I’m not sure The Big Bang theory was actually especially funny this year. The Office had its highs as well as shocking lows (and really should have finished by now). 30 Rock and Modern Family had good, even great seasons, but nothing came even remotely close to the sustained brilliance of Parks and Recreation, especially Flu Season.

Andy: “I entered your symptoms into the computer and it says you may have ‘network connectivity problems’.”

That surely deserves an award.

Outstanding Drama Series


Boardwalk Empire


Dexter


Friday Night Lights


Game of Thrones

The Good Wife


Mad Men

WILL WIN

Martin Scorsese, Steve Buscemi, Kelly Macdonald and HBO are all involved with Boardwalk Empire. I just can’t see it not winning this category over Mad Men – but Mad Men has the runs on the board and also had a great season.

SHOULD WIN

As much as I admire the depth and drama of Mad Men and Boardwalk Empire, as much as I like the twisted moral complexity of The Good Wife, as much as I love the searing emotion of Friday Night Lights, nothing captivated me as much this year as the action-packed, intrigue heavy genius of Game of Thrones. This is so much more than just a fantasy series, folks. Check it out.

EMMY NOMINATIONS PREVIEW EXTRAVAGANZA

The stench of the Oscars lingers only slightly round these here parts. Sure, The Social Network lost to The King’s Speech, but we all knew that was going to happen. It was the Academy Awards, after all. For real, daring, swerving award-giving, we need to turn to….

…The Emmys?

Perhaps one of the most stuck-in-the-mud award ceremonies in town, the Emmy nominations will be announced in the next few hours. Will there be surprises? Will there be drama? Will there be comedy?

Probably not, but nonetheless, here’s my breakdown – and as usual, I’ve separated each category into who I think will be nominated, and who I think should be nominated - after the jump...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

PREDICTIONS

KELLY MACDONALD, BOARDWALK EMPIRE
ARCHIE PANJABI, THE GOOD WIFE
CHRISTINE BARANSKI, THE GOOD WIFE
CHRISTINA HENDRICKS, MAD MEN
MARGO MARTINDALE, JUSTIFIED
SANDRA OH, GREY'S ANATOMY

WISH LIST

EMILIA CLARKE, GAME OF THRONES
CHRISTINA HENDRICKS, MAD MEN
MARGO MARTINDALE, JUSTIFIED
KIERNAN SHIPKA, MAD MEN
ARCHIE PANJABI, THE GOOD WIFE
AIMEE TEEGARDEN, FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

One of the defining characteristics of this year’s ceremony is probably going to be the dominance of a series I think is hugely overrated – Boardwalk Empire. One of the categories in which you can expect this dominance to rear its ugly head is this one – where Kelly Macdonald will at least be in the top two or three. She should really be a lead in this category and the performance is certainly more than capable – but I don’t think it really has that spark about it.

On the other hand, Emilia Clarke’s performance as Daenerys Targaryen is one of the many reasons to check out Game of Thrones. My two long shots are the two youngest actors on this list – Kiernan Shipka was so, so good on Mad Men this year. I can’t possibly imagine that Matthew Weiner and co. knew how much depth she could bring to her character – the child of an unhappy, broken marriage. Especially in The Beautiful Girls but indeed throughout the whole series, she was a knockout. Aimee Teegarden didn’t have the world’s best material this year on Friday Night Lights but boy has she been good over the last five years and I hope she gets a token nomination.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA

PREDICTIONS

ALAN CUMMING, THE GOOD WIFE
JOHN SLATTERY, MAD MEN
ANDRE BRAUGHER, MEN OF A CERTAIN AGE
MICHAEL PITT, BOARDWALK EMPIRE
CHRIS NOTH, THE GOOD WIFE
PETER DINKLAGE, GAME OF THRONES

WISH LIST

PETER DINKLAGE, GAME OF THRONES
DELROY LINDO, THE CHICAGO CODE
ALAN CUMMING, THE GOOD WIFE
JOSH CHARLES, THE GOOD WIFE
JOHN NOBLE, FRINGE
JOHN SLATTERY, MAD MEN

Good category, this one. I hope and expect that Alan Cumming might take it out, but I’d be happy with pretty much anyone on either the Predictions or Wish List taking this one out. I’d like to throw out a mention to Josh Charles, who I think is giving an excellent performance that doesn’t get its due. The shades of grey in this role cover all parts of the spectrum.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

PREDICTIONS

KRISTEN WIIG, SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE
SOFIA VERGARA, MODERN FAMILY
JULIE BOWEN, MODERN FAMILY
JANE LYNCH, GLEE
BETTY WHITE, HOT IN CLEVELAND
JANE KRAKOWSKI, 30 ROCK

WISH LIST

SOFIA VERGARA, MODERN FAMILY
GILLIAN JACOBS, COMMUNITY
ALISON BRIE, COMMUNITY
AUBREY PLAZA, PARKS AND RECREATION
RASHIDA JONES, PARKS AND RECREATION
ALISON JANNEY, MR SUNSHINE

Jane Lynch will probably win this, but Sofia Vergara should win it because she’s giving the funniest and most winning performance on television. I think Gillian Jacobs is hugely underrated on Community and has had a great second season, and apart from that I’ve just nominated pretty much everyone I could find on Community and Parks and Rec. Also, I love Alison Janney and thought Mr. Sunshine was better than most people did. She ice skated with a Smurf. Emmy, please.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY

PREDICTIONS

NEIL PATRICK HARRIS, HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER
CHRIS COLFER, GLEE
ERIC STONESTREET, MODERN FAMILY
TY BURRELL, MODERN FAMILY
JON CRYER, TWO AND A HALF MEN
NICK OFFERMAN, PARKS AND RECREATION

WISH LIST

BILL HADER, SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE
NICK OFFERMAN, PARKS AND RECREATION
ADAM SCOTT, PARKS AND RECREATION
DONALD GLOVER, COMMUNITY
DANNY PUDI, COMMUNITY
CHRIS COLFER, GLEE

HONOURABLE MENTION
NOLAN GOULD AND RICO RODRIGUEZ, MODERN FAMILY

Glee might go two-from-two in this comedy and while I think Chris Colfer is excellent, I don’t think he’s comedically excellent. He deserves a nomination, certainly, but I don’t think he deserves to win. To my own surprise, I don’t even think Nick Offerman or Donald Glover deserve to win. I think Bill Hader is the standout in this category, because no one has made me laugh harder or longer than him. If you watch the most recent season of Saturday Night Live, Hader is consistently the funniest part of every sketch, bringing texture and extra layers of comic genius to even the smallest role. Bill Hader is a comic genius, I hope he sticks with Saturday Night Live, and I hope Stefon doesn’t get overused.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

PREDICTIONS

KYRA SEDGWICK, THE CLOSER
ELISABETH MOSS, MAD MEN
JULIANNA MARGUILES, FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
MARISKA HARGITAY, LAW AND ORDER SPECIAL VICTIMS UNIT
CONNIE BRITTON, FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
KATHY BATES, HARRY'S LAW

WISH LIST

ELISABETH MOSS, MAD MEN
CONNIE BRITTON, FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
JULIANNA MARGUILES, THE GOOD WIFE
EMMY ROSSUM, SHAMELESS
KATEY SAGAL, SONS OF ANARCHY
JENNIFER BEALS, THE CHICAGO CODE

Look, I’m not crazy about this category. I think this should be a race to the finish line between Connie Britton and Elisabeth Moss. If anyone else wins it I’m not going to be that happy, even Julianna Marguiles in The Good Wife I think is doing pretty standard acting whereas everyone else is doing something more interesting. She’s very good, but I much prefer Britton and Moss. Even everyone on my wish list pales in comparison to those two.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA

PREDICTIONS

JON HAMM, MAD MEN
HUGH LAURIE, HOUSE
MICHAEL C. HALL, DEXTER
STEVE BUSCEMI, BOARDWALK EMPIRE
GABRIEL BYRNE, IN TREATMENT
KYLE CHANDLER, FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

WISH LIST

JON HAMM, MAD MEN
HUGH LAURIE, HOUSE
MICHAEL C. HALL, DEXTER
KYLE CHANDLER, FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
TIMOTHY OLYPHANT, JUSTIFIED
JAMES BADGE DALE, RUBICON

With Breaking Bad out of the running this year, this category is a little weaker than years past. In the past you used to have six absolutely outstanding lock performances. This year though, House has lost huge amounts of quality, as has Dexter, and as I’ve mentioned I’m not a huge fan of Boardwalk Empire. There’s still plenty of quality here – but none more so than Jon Hamm. He’s my will and should win this year, no one else comes close.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

PREDICTIONS

LAURA LINNEY, THE BIG C
TONI COLLETTE, UNITED STATES OF TARA
TINA FEY, 30 ROCK
EDIE FALCO, NURSE JACKIE
AMY POEHLER, PARKS AND RECREATION
LEA MICHELE, GLEE

WISH LIST

AMY POEHLER, PARKS AND RECREATION
TINA FEY, 30 ROCK
KALEY CUOCO, THE BIG BANG THEORY
TONI COLLETTE, THE UNITED STATES OF TARA
LAURA LINNEY, THE BIG C
MARTHA PLIMPTON, RAISING HOPE

Amy Poehler is far and away the best performance in this category, even over her Saturday Night Live cohort in Tina Fey, but sadly she might not win. Edie Falco or Toni Collette will win for their great dramatic performances on dramatic shows.

Sigh.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY
PREDICTIONS

STEVE CARELL, THE OFFICE
JIM PARSONS, THE BIG BANG THEORY
ALEC BALDWIN, 30 ROCK
MATT LEBLANC, EPISODES
ROB LOWE, PARKS AND RECREATION
MATTHEW MORRISON, GLEE

WISH LIST

STEVE CARELL, THE OFFICE
ROB LOWE, PARKS AND RECREATION
JIM PARSONS, THE BIG BANG THEORY
JOEL MCHALE, COMMUNITY
MATT LEBLANC, EPISODES
ALEC BALDWIN, 30 ROCK

See here? See that Wish List there? That is a terrific set of six comedic performances all deserving of a nomination on shows of varying quality. Sure, it’s a three-way race between Baldwin, Parsons and Carell but I really, really want LeBlanc, Lowe and McHale to get a nomination. However, Matthew Morrison, who I have defended in the past because if we count dramatic ability in this sort of category (Colfer, Falco), we need to count singing and dancing ability too, gave an awful performance in Glee’s second season. That means he will probably get a nomination.
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES

PREDICTIONS

MAD MEN
THE GOOD WIFE
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
BOARDWALK EMPIRE
TRUE BLOOD
DEXTER

WISH LIST

MAD MEN
THE GOOD WIFE
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
GAME OF THRONES
JUSTIFIED
BOARDWALK EMPIRE
I’m indulging my absolute worst cynical instincts here. I reckon Mad Men or Boardwalk will win this in a canter, but whereas Game of Thrones and Justified deserve a nomination much more than True Blood or Dexter, expect Emmy voters to stick with the tried and true. Refer to the Wish List for my should win rankings this year!

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
PREDICTIONS

GLEE
MODERN FAMILY
30 ROCK
THE OFFICE
THE BIG BANG THEORY
NURSE JACKIE
WISH LIST
MODERN FAMILY
PARKS AND RECREATION
COMMUNITY
LOUIE
SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE
30 ROCK
Apart from Nurse Jackie and Glee, all of these shows deserve a nomination here so I’m not going to complain much. Obviously Parks and Recreation desperately deserves a nomination and I am hoping and praying that it bumps out non-comedy Nurse Jackie. I’m not so fussed about Community as I totally understand why people wouldn’t get it and I think it has much lower lows than Parks and Recreation.
Also, I love Saturday Night Live still. Don’t care what you say.

TV REVIEW - BLUE BLOODS

Would you trust this family? Yes, you probably would.

The most immediate thought I had when watching the pilot of new CBS drama ‘Blue Bloods’ is how reminiscent it was of ‘The Good Wife.’ It’s from the same channel in the US so that isn’t surprising, but it carries far more similarities than that. Considering ‘The Good Wife’ is one of my favourite shows, this bodes well for the future of ‘Blue Bloods’.

‘Blue Bloods’ follows the Reagan family – all involved in law-related professions – and their trials and tribulations in New York. Tom Selleck is the big-name star as New York City’s police commissioner and Len Cariou also features as his father who occupied that same position. Donnie Wahlberg is his police detective son, Bridget Moynihan his ADA daughter and Will Estes as his law-grad turned beat cop youngest child. It’s by the numbers casting – but really, really well done by the numbers casting.

So like ‘The Good Wife’, the cast is excellent and eminently watchable. The pilot episode follows a fairly rote, uninspiring and slightly manipulative missing-child case that no doubt suffered due to the time allotted to introducing us to all the characters. Sometimes I wish the occasional pilot episode would save a character or two to introduce at a later episode as any procedural storyline in a pilot episode inevitably suffers – and that happens here. Donnie Wahlberg brings an unusual level of depth to his character during the storyline, however.

The pilot certainly looks fantastic and wears its New York heritage on its sleeve – there’s no beating around the bush about where this show is set (the soundtrack gives that away with not one but two versions of New York, New York.) Even better, the show is actually filmed in New York, giving the whole thing a sense of scale and grandeur that could be fantastically effective if used properly. A TV show where the city is a character (see again: Chicago in ‘The Good Wife’ or Baltimore in ‘The Wire’) is at a serious advantage over its competition.

One of the other similarities isn’t particularly interesting – the ethical quandaries brought to light during the kidnapping case are discussed with passion but a complete lack of depth during a dinner party scene. If you’re going to have a debate about the justification of ‘advanced interrogation’, at least give it the time and depth it deserves, not a cursory listing of the basic arguments.

So ‘Blue Bloods’ is coasting along at a lightly entertaining but unmemorable pace but about thirty-five minutes into the pilot Will Estes character gets involved in what seems like it might be an ongoing, season-long arc of intrigue and if so, count me involved. I actually sat up at this moment (which I won’t spoil) and paid proper attention to a show that had previously only occasionally involved me.

So how can ‘Blue Bloods’ become as good as ‘The Good Wife’? By paying proper attention to the season-long arcs its characters are involved in, by fully exploring any moral questions that it gets involved with, and most of all, by developing the kind of procedural stories that enhance the ongoing plots, rather than distracting from them.

If it does any of that, it has the potential to be an addictive police drama with a great cast and a point of difference. If it does all of that, it could be the new great police drama on television.


Blue Bloods airs at 8:30pm Wednesday night on Channel Ten.