5 Oscar Nominations I'd like to see tomorrow - but probably won't

A man can hope - and I'm hoping that at least one of these long shots gets a run tomorrow - but they are the longest of shots.

5. Best Actor - Aaron Eckhart (Rabbit Hole)

Nicole Kidman is receiving all the accolades but one half of the central couple in Rabbit Hole is missing out. I've been a fan of Eckhart's for a long time and have always thought he had the chops to play someone deeply, deeply evil, rather than the conflicted Two-Face of The Dark Knight. Most reviews of Rabbit Hole say Eckhart is as good as if not stronger than Kidman in the film - so it seems like it's merely a stronger field on the male side that's keeping him out.

Which favourite should miss out?
Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter)

4. Best Film - Animal Kingdom

This has nothing to do with Australia Day - Animal Kingdom is just an outstanding film. Even though I cringe when I see it described in America as 'Australia's version of The Godfather' I can't deny it's one of the best, most accessible Australian films in recent times. So why is Jacki Weaver our only nomination? I would wager that Animal Kingdom at least deserves to challenge the fighter, 127 hours etc.. to make the top ten. But I guess the patriot in me can settle for the King's speech. (Close enough)

Which Favourite Should Miss Out? Tough call, but I'll go with 127 Hours for no particular reason except I think it's the most likely...

3. Best Supporting Actor - Tom Hardy (Inception)

Charming. If there's one adjective to describe Tom Hardy's performance in Inception, it's just one big giant ball of charm. He may not have the method of Christian Bale or the wit and wisdom of Geoffrey Rush but wouldn't it be nice to see the Academy nominate a performance with just a bit of old fashioned movie star charisma?

2. Best Supporting Actor - Armie Hammer (The Social Network)

If not just for the best line of 2010 - "I'm six-five, 220 pounds and there's two of me" - then for one of the most remarkable performances of the year. If you knew Armie Hammer was playing two roles, you took glee in both the way he constructed two separate characters and in the reactions of people when they found out he was just one actor. There are a bunch of fantastic performances in The Social Network but for technical proficiency and the neat trick of making characters who should be inherently unrelatable and unlikeable incredibly sympathetic, Hammer gets my vote for a Supporting nomination.

Who should miss out: Andrew Garfield, I suppose. Better in 'Never Let Me Go', I reckon Hammer just pips him. Were it not for the fact the rest of the category is so strong, both could easily get a nomination.

1. Best Actress - Emma Stone (Easy A)

Most of my picks are pretty shamelessly mainstream, and I know the Academy never rewards comedy, but I still hold out a slight glimmer of hope that Emma Stone might just snag a nomination. My reasoning?

Emma Stone does something that only a few of her fellow nominees (Steinfeld, maybe Kidman) do - she elevates the film. The film would have been an inoffensive teen comedy without her, but with her it's one of the most entertaining movies f the year and one of the best teen movies in recent memory. Its a sparkling, charismatic, hilarious performance not without surprising levels of depth - and I think it should warrant a Best Actress nomination.

Who should miss out?
They're all tough ones, but I'm going to go with Nicole Kidman. You don't nominate Eckhart, you don't nominate Kidman!

SOME PEOPLE NEVER LEARN - THE 2011 OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

Okay so my Golden Globes picks didn’t go that well. But sometimes you just have to get back on the horse – and what better horse than the Oscars? We’re still a little way away from the ceremony itself, but on Tuesday (American time) the nominations will come out. So let’s have a crack at redeeming my Nostradamus credentials.

BEST PICTURE

THE SOCIAL NETWORK

THE KING’S SPEECH

INCEPTION

BLACK SWAN

TRUE GRIT

THE FIGHTER

THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT

TOY STORY 3

WINTER’S BONE

127 HOURS

Explanation: Given that there are ten possible nominees for Best Picture, you should only really run into trouble from choices 7-10. This is a ranked probability for a nom, so I think The Social Network is the best chance, and 127 Hours the most unlikely of those choices. The first seven would be highly surprising if they missed out. Of the last three:

Toy Story 3 has against it the fact it is an animated film – might struggle with the Actor’s Guild, etc. – but should lock in a spot, given Up did last year and this movie might be the best threequel of all time.

Winter’s Bone  - A very, very small film but one that carries with it the kind of indie credibility that Precious and A Serious Man had last year, or Frozen River  the year before that, which was a strong chance of a nomination had ten films been nominated that year.

127 Hours is mainly in competition with The Town and maybe, maybe Shutter Island to take that last spot. I would say two of The Town, Winters Bone and 127 Hours will be nominated, and I suspect if The Town misses out it will mainly have been the Franco/Boyle factor that got 127 Hours over the line.

BEST DIRECTOR

CHRISTOPHER NOLAN – INCEPTION

TOM HOOPER – THE KING’S SPEECH

DARREN ARONOFSKY – BLACK SWAN

DAVID FINCHER – THE SOCIAL NETWORK

JOEL AND ETHAN COEN – TRUE GRIT

Explanation: The Best Director Oscar was always one of the least interesting to me in that Best Director would seem to be synonymous with Best Film. The last director to win the award but not have their film take out the main prize was, accordingly, the biggest upset in recent memory when Ang Lee won Best Director for Brokeback Mountain but lost Best Picture to Crash. Before that? Roman Polanski winning BD for the Pianist but losing BP to Chicago. Hey, those are two of the most reviled Best Picture winners in recent history – which is interesting. That said, ever since last year when the Best Picture category was expanded to ten nominees, Best Director now serves as a kind of Top Five indicator – so my five Best Director picks are also my five frontrunners for Best Picture. Simple as that – at that is also the main reason why I haven’t gone for David O. Russell. He’s been campaigning hard for The Fighter but I think Joel and Ethan Coen have produced the more acclaimed movie – so do you go with the cynic or the optimist? On this occasion, I might go for the optimist. Have I learned nothing?

BEST ACTOR

COLIN FIRTH – THE KING’S SPEECH

JESSE EISENBERG – THE SOCIAL NETWORK

JEFF BRIDGES – TRUE GRIT

JAMES FRANCO – 127 HOURS

ROBERT DUVALL – GET LOW

As with any nomination preview, the hardest pick is always the last one or two. The first three here are almost guaranteed and Jeff Bridges would be desperately unlucky to miss out. So that leaves respected actor Duvall in the little-seen Get Low vs. heavily campaigning cocky upstart Mark Wahlberg in The Fighter vs. under-the-radar indie darling Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine. I’m going to go with Duvall on the basis of experience and respect, but don’t discount Wahlberg. Or Gosling. Or Bardem. Etc. Oh, and Firth will win.

BEST ACTRESS

NATALIE PORTMAN – BLACK SWAN

ANNETTE BENING – THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT

JENNIFER LAWRENCE – WINTER’S BONE

NICOLE KIDMAN – RABBIT HOLE

MICHELLE WILLIAMS – BLUE VALENTINE

The main question about the Best Actress field is a really simple, boring one. Does Hailee Steinfeld get nominated for Best Actress (which she should as she is in just about every scene) or Best Supporting because Jeff Bridges is the ostensible ‘star’ of the film? I would hope that she is because she deserves to be nominated in the category with higher visibility. If she misses out, either Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine or Lesley Manville for Another Year will swoop to take that spot. The lead up awards suggest she’s a better chance for Supporting Actress, so I’m going to indulge my cynic this time and go with Williams.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

CHRISTIAN BALE – THE FIGHTER

GEOFFREY RUSH – THE KING’S SPEECH

MARK RUFFALO – THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT

ANDREW GARFIELD – THE SOCIAL NETWORK

JEREMY RENNER – THE TOWN

I feel the safest with my picks in this category – these five have everything you need to be an Oscar contender and have the Awards season momentum to carry them into the nominations field. The possible upsets are John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone), Michael Douglas (Wall Street 2) and Sam Rockwell (Conviction). I’d personally like to see Matt Damon get a run here, but I feel relatively safe with these five. Famous last words.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

HAILEE STEINFELD – TRUE GRIT

MELISSA LEO – THE FIGHTER

AMY ADAMS – THE FIGHTER

JACKI WEAVER – ANIMAL KINGDOM

HELENA BONHAM CARTER – THE KING’S SPEECH

Jacki Weaver is possibly in danger of missing out to Mila Kunis here but I think that’s the only possible upset, unless Steinfeld gets nominated in Best Actress, in which case both should get nominated and there’s your field.

I’ll post a bare-bones prediction list for the rest of the big categories tomorrow. Part of me is hoping for a surprise or two when the nominations are announced - part of me is hoping for none at all!