Futility, thy name is…predicting the Golden Globes. Filled with so much inherent ridiculousness that watching it can make your mind spin, this mule of the awards show animal kingdom airs tomorrow morning Australian time, hosted by Ricky Gervais. As an award show junkie, I will now try and achieve the impossible – picking the winners.
A caveat: I haven’t seen all of these films. This is merely as educated a guess as possible – predicated on what I know about both the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and award show campaigns in general.
FILM
BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
BLACK SWAN
THE FIGHTER
INCEPTION
THE KING’S SPEECH
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
WILL WIN: THE KING’S SPEECH SHOULD WIN: THE SOCIAL NETWORK
As I have said many times, I prefer The Social Network to the King’s Speech. I think it’s the better, more kinetic film and is about more universal and compelling themes. The reason I think the King’s Speech will win is for a simple, possibly too basic reason: It’s not an American film and has more international appeal than The Social Network. Beloved (and fantastic) actors who will go on to win at least one award in those categories will also help its chances. In no way undeserving, I think we can expect to see the King’s Speech win the Golden Globes’ most prestigious honour.
WHY WON’T THE OTHERS WIN?
BLACK SWAN – Because it’s controversial, critically divisive and more likely to gain an acting nod for Natalie Portman. As a director, Darren Aronofsky tends to elicit award-winning performances in merely award-nominated films.
THE FIGHTER – Too messy – definitely the fifth member of this exceptional character and once again a film outshone by its actors.
INCEPTION – Isn’t it nice to see a big tent pole action flick nominated for a Best Drama Award? Why won’t it win? Because it’s a big tent pole action flick, that’s why.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
ALICE IN WONDERLAND
BURLESQUE
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
RED
THE TOURIST
WILL AND SHOULD WIN: THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Take a look at those five nominations. If that isn’t an argument to scrap the whole ‘Musical or Comedy’ division of the Golden Globes I don’t know what is. The only one with a remote Oscar chance is the Kids Are All Right, and barring an absolute travesty it will take the division easily. This category has had its fair share of decent entries but always fills out the category with at least two extremely dubious choices – usually musicals – Nine, Mamma Mia, etc. The last movie nominated in this category to win the Academy Award for Best Picture was Chicago in 2002. Since 2000, only nine movies nominated in this category have been nominated for Best Picture in the Academy Awards. Seriously, Burlesque. The Tourist. WTF?
BEST ACTOR – MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
JESSE EISENBERG AS MARK ZUCKERBERG IN THE SOCIAL NETWORK
COLIN FIRTH AS KING GEORGE VI IN THE KING’S SPEECH
JAMES FRANCO AS ARON RALSTON IN 127 HOURS
RYAN GOSLING AS DEAN IN BLUE VALENTINE
MARK WAHLBERG AS MICKY WARD IN THE FIGHTER
WILL WIN – COLIN FIRTH SHOULD WIN – COLIN FIRTH/JESSE EISENBERG
I’ve written extensively about this in my review of the King’s Speech, but I can’t split my love of Jesse Eisenberg and Colin Firth’s performances in their respective films. I haven’t seen 127 hours yet but I’m told that Franco is also excellent, as is Gosling, whereas I think Mark Wahlberg was nominated more for his physical performance as Ward. So, not being able to split the performances, we inevitably and cynically go to the actors. Firth’s status and the fact he’s playing a disability get him over the line for me.
BEST ACTRESS – MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
HALLE BERRY AS FRANKIE/ALICE IN FRANKIE AND ALICE
NICOLE KIDMAN AS BECCA CORBETT IN RABBIT HOLE
JENNIFER LAWRENCE AS REE DOLLY IN WINTER’S BONE
NATALIE PORTMAN AS NINA SAYERS IN BLACK SWAN
MICHELLE WILLIAMS AS CINDY IN BLUE VALENTINE
WILL WIN – NATALIE PORTMAN SHOULD WIN: ABSTAIN
Thanks to living in Australia, I haven’t seen a damned one of these films yet. But is this an indie crowd or what when the most mainstream of these films is Black freaking Swan???? Natalie Portman has all the momentum (and seems to be everywhere at the moment) and will probably take it out. In the absence of being able to judge the performances though, I’ll take a shot at a roughie – watch out for Kidman and Berry. In fact, I’m going to say my second choice is Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole.
BEST ACTOR – MOTION PICTURE COMEDY OR MUSICAL
JOHNNY DEPP AS THE MAD HATTER IN ALICE IN WONDERLAND
JOHNNY DEPP AS FRANK TUPELO IN THE TOURIST
PAUL GIAMATTI AS BARNEY PADOFSKY IN BARNEY’S VERSION
JAKE GYLLENHAAL AS JAMIE RANDALL IN LOVE AND OTHER DRUGS
KEVIN SPACEY AS JACK ABRAMOFF IN CASINO JACK
WILL WIN: KEVIN SPACEY SHOULD WIN: KEVIN SPACEY
Apart from the two ludicrous Johnny Depp nominations (he abandons all charisma to no effect in The Tourist and is just a series of weird tics in Wonderland) this is a pretty good category. I have seen Casino Jack and loved Spacey’s performance and believe he deserves the win. Jack Gyllenhaal is good (really good, actually) in the comedy parts of Love and Other Drugs but outshone by Hathaway, and having not seen Barney’s version I can only assume Giamatti is his usual fantastic self. But Spacey for mine.
BEST ACTRESS – MOTION PICTURE COMEDY OR MUSICAL
ANNETTE BENING AS NIC IN THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
ANNE HATHAWAY AS MAGGIE MURDOCK IN LOVE AND OTHER DRUGS
ANGELINA JOLIE AS ELISE WARD IN THE TOURIST
JULIANNE MOORE AS JULES IN THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
EMMA STONE AS OLIVE PRENDERGAST IN EASY A
WILL WIN: EMMA STONE SHOULD WIN: EMMA STONE
This is the one I am almost certain I’m going to get wrong, but I’m going to hold out hope. I think Emma Stone deserves this award and I absolutely loved her performance in Easy A. The cynic in me, however, says up against established stars Bening and Moore as well as slightly-more-advanced-in-her career Hathaway, Stone is an extremely slim chance of winning. But you didn’t come here to read me select a series of favourites, so here it is. Emma Stone. (Notice Angelina Jolie got her please-turn-up-to-our-award-ceremony-and-bring-your-husband nomination.)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
CHRISTIAN BALE AS DICKIE EKLUND IN THE FIGHTER
MICHAEL DOUGLAS AS GORDON GEKKO IN WALL STREET: MONEY NEVER SLEEPS
ANDREW GARFIELD AS EDUARDO SAVERIN IN THE SOCIAL NETWORK
JEREMY RENNER AS JAMES COUGHLIN IN THE TOWN
GEOFFREY RUSH AS LIONEL LOGUE IN THE KING’S SPEECH
WILL AND SHOULD WIN: CHRISTIAN BALE
This might be the toughest category of the whole damn show. Look at those five performances (well, four. Douglas is good but doesn’t really deserve this category when Armie Hammer could have been nominated for TSN) and try and pick a certain winner. Rush, Renner and Garfield are all fantastic but I think Bale might end up being a little more fantastic. If there’s an upset, though, expect it to come from Rush. (In fact, though I’m splitting my picks among several films, don’t be surprised if the HFPA get bored and give everything to The King’s Speech.)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
AMY ADAMS AS CHARLENE FLEMING IN THE FIGHTER
MELISSA LEO AS ALICE EKLUND IN THE FIGHTER
JACKI WEAVER AS JANINE ‘SMURF’ CODY IN ANIMAL KINGDOM
MILA KUNIS AS LILY IN BLACK SWAN
HELENA BONHAM CARTER AS QUEEN ELIZABETH IN THE KING’S SPEECH
WILL WIN: AMY ADAMS SHOULD WIN: JACKI WEAVER
I’d be happy with any winner of this category (rare) but I think Adams has just the right amount of critical acclaim, name value and playing against type credibility to snatch it. Weaver is fantastic but I worry that we get blinded in Australia by the fact that she’s Australian and thus pump her up to be a chance, even though she’s in a very, very small film by international standards. Everyone is genuinely deserving in this category though.
OTHER PICKS
BEST DIRECTOR
WILL WIN: TOM HOOPER SHOULD WIN: CHRISTOPHER NOLAN
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
WILL AND SHOULD WIN: TOY STORY 3
BEST SCREENPLAY
WILL AND SHOULD WIN: AARON SORKIN – THE SOCIAL NETWORK
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
WILL WIN: YOU HAVEN’T SEEN THE LAST OF ME – BURLESQUE
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
WILL WIN: BIUTIFUL
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
WILL WIN: TRENT REZNOR, ATTICUS ROSS – THE SOCIAL NETWORK
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